Cinema: Oscar Predictions – my futile attempt

Blog notice: I’ve added a bunch of blogs to the links list, most importantly adding Tom the Dog to the list after all this time, which is incredibly embarrassing as he is not only one of the guys I enjoy reading the most but he was the first guy to link back to me and put me on his blog roll – I hope you can forgive me, Tom, I’m real sorry. I’ve also changed my blog description (until it annoys me again), and included a quote as well, which should hopefully change weekly, to keep me amused. And now …

My Oscar predictions, or ‘Getting It Wrong In Public’

Original Screenplay – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Fulfils the title of the award perfectly, being the most original screenplay, and for showing the end and start of a relationship in a fascinating way. Kaufmann deserves it already.

Adapted Screenplay – Sideways
While The Motorcycle Diaries was very good, adapting the journals into an absorbing study of an iconic figure, Sideways is smart, moving, funny and too lovely not to get the Oscar, especially as it won’t win for anything else.

Supporting Actor – Clive Owen
I don’t think they’ll give Morgan Freeman the Oscar he definitely deserves just yet. I know M$B has been getting all the buzz, but all fingers point to Owen getting it, even if I don’t think he is a particularly good actor.

Supporting Actress – Cate Blanchett
This is my guess, because you can never predict it. I want to go for Natalie Portman but I think the academy will think she’s too young to get it just yet, whereas Cate has proved her acting chops and had nominations before, with The Aviator thing helping too. But I’m still not sure.

Lead Actor – Jamie Foxx
Already has his name on it. Shame for the other actors in the category, really. I don’t know if he has got what it takes to live up to the honour in the rest of his career, but we shall see.

Lead Actress – Hilary Swank
I don’t know if the academy particularly wants to give Hilary a second Oscar; she’s too young and she’s only been good in two films, her other films have been pretty poor, but it just seems like this will happen. Personally, I’d give it to Kate Winslet, but that won’t happen. The only other option would be Imelda Staunton, but America doesn’t really know her (except maybe as Gwyneth Paltrow’s maid in Shakespeare In Love).

Director – Martin Scorsese
Although Clint got the DGA, a very good indicator of the Oscar, I still think that Marty will get his due this year. Or perhaps I’m confusing supposed logic with my own desire for Marty to get the statue. I’m definitely biased on this one, so take with a pinch of salt.

Film – The Aviator
My initial thoughts on this were that they would split the difference; whoever got best director, the other would get best film. I still have a feeling that’s how it’s going to go but, by picking Marty through heavy bias, I’m not in the best position to judge. Therefore, I reckon they’ll go for the comfort of a ‘big’ film winning the big two over the ‘smaller’ film (size referring to scale of the film).

There you have it. I won’t be able to watch the event live as it happens, unfortunately, as I’ll be fast asleep and I have to go to work in the morning. (Before, I’ve taken the day off, taped the show, avoided radio in the morning and watched as if live – yes, I am that sad.) No doubt Tom the Dog will have a blow-by-blow account of the show, so that I can at least enjoy it vicariously.

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3 Comments

  1. I forgive you. 🙂

    I will indeed be liveblogging the Oscars. I’ll be posting my picks today or tomorrow, and then going nuts on Sunday, starting an hour early with the red carpet arrivals.

  2. I used to care more about the Oscars (but now I’m old and gray, so not so much), and I’m not up on the buzz, but your statement about Winslett is interesting. I wonder if she will become a latter-day Jennifer Jason Leigh, who’s never won. Leigh should have won at least two, and Winslett probably should win one or two. I wonder why certain people get shut out. It’s weird.

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